{"id":30,"date":"2023-06-29T02:39:05","date_gmt":"2023-06-29T02:39:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cncap.makenv.com\/?page_id=30"},"modified":"2023-07-11T06:40:32","modified_gmt":"2023-07-11T06:40:32","slug":"%e7%bb%bc%e5%90%88%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8bgcam-china","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/?page_id=30","title":{"rendered":"\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578bGCAM-China"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong>\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578bGCAM-China<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728&nbsp;CNCAP \u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\u6a21\u62df\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u80fd\u6e90\u6d3b\u52a8\u9884\u6d4b\u6765\u81ea\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578bGCAM-China\u3002\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u548cGDP\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u76ee\u6807\u7ea6\u675f\u4e0b\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>20 \u4e16\u7eaa 60 \u5e74\u4ee3\u8d77\u5168\u7403\u73af\u5883\u95ee\u9898\u5f00\u59cb\u5f15\u8d77\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u9010\u6b65\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5168\u7403\u73af\u5883\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u3001\u591a\u90e8\u95e8\u3001\u7efc\u5408\u6027\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u6027\u7684\u5168\u9762\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u201c\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff08Nordhaus, 2008\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/jgcri.github.io\/gcam-doc\/index.html\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"http:\/\/jgcri.github.io\/gcam-doc\/index.html\">GCAM<\/a> \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u578b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e94\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\uff09\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u5f7c\u6b64\u95f4\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5173\u7cfb\u3002 GCAM\u6a21\u578b\u59cb\u521b\u4e8e 1982 \u5e74\uff08 Edmonds and Reilly\uff0c 1983\uff09\uff0c\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5317\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff08 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory\uff0c PNNL\uff09\u5f00\u53d1\u5e76\u7ef4\u62a4\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c GCAM \u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4f30\uff08 Fawcett et al., 2015; Calvin et al., 2017; Dong et al., 2018; Vittorio et al., 2018; Calvin et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2019\uff09 \uff0c\u4e5f\u662f IPCC \u56fd\u9645\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u65f6\u7684\u5e38\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e00\uff08 IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2014\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GCAM \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4e09\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\uff1a GCAM \u6570\u636e\u7cfb\u7edf \u3001 GCAM \u6838\u5fc3\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u7cfb\u5217\u5206\u89e3\u6a21\u578b\u3002 GCAM \u6570\u636e\u7cfb\u7edf\u5305\u542b\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u3001\u6392\u653e\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u6a21\u5757\uff1b\u65e2\u5305\u62ec\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u57fa\u51c6\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6821\u51c6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u65e2\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u672a\u6765\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u5916\u751f\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4e3a GCAM \u6838\u5fc3\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u57fa\u7840\u8f93\u5165\u3002 GCAM \u6838\u5fc3\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u7b49\u4e94\u4e2a\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u6a21\u62df\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u53d1\u5c55\u8def\u5f84\uff0c PNNL \u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d4c\u5957\u7248\u672c\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b GCAM-China\uff08 Yu et al., 2019\uff09\u3002\u5728GCAM-China\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u4f5c\u4e3a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u78b3\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u76ee\u6807\u7ea6\u675f\u4e0b\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u9700\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5747\u5728\u7701\u7ea7\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6a21\u62df\u9884\u6d4b\u3002 \u672c\u7814\u7a76\u5373\u91c7\u7528 GCAMChina \u6a21\u578b\u5728\u7701\u7ea7\u5c42\u9762\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u540c\u6c14\u5019\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u4f9b\u9700\u53d8\u5316\u3002<br><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578bGCAM-China \u5728&nbsp;CNCAP \u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\u6a21\u62df\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u80fd\u6e90\u6d3b\u52a8\u9884\u6d4b\u6765\u81ea\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4&hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/?page_id=30\" class=\"themebutton2\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":2,"menu_order":1,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"blog-alternative","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/30"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/30\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":215,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/30\/revisions\/215"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}