{"id":58,"date":"2023-07-02T08:08:39","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T08:08:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cncap.makenv.com\/?page_id=58"},"modified":"2024-02-17T08:49:27","modified_gmt":"2024-02-17T08:49:27","slug":"%e8%b4%b9%e7%94%a8-%e6%95%88%e7%9b%8a%e7%bb%bc%e5%90%88%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/?page_id=58","title":{"rendered":"\u8d39\u7528\u6548\u76ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u5757"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light\" style=\"min-height:200px\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-0 has-background-dim\"><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"927\" height=\"335\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-541\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/\u70df\u96fe\u7b3c\u7f692-1.jpg\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" srcset=\"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/\u70df\u96fe\u7b3c\u7f692-1.jpg 927w, http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/\u70df\u96fe\u7b3c\u7f692-1-300x108.jpg 300w, http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/\u70df\u96fe\u7b3c\u7f692-1-768x278.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 927px) 100vw, 927px\" \/><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left has-white-color has-text-color has-large-font-size\"><strong>\u8d39\u7528\u6548\u76ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u5757<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d39\u7528\u6548\u76ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u5757\u5305\u62ec\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u6838\u7b97\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d44\u6e90\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u7b49\u5b50\u6a21\u5757\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u529f\u80fd\u662f\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5176\u7efc\u5408\u8d39\u7528\u6548\u76ca\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d39\u7528\u6548\u76ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u5757\u91c7\u7528\u81ea\u4e3b\u7814\u53d1\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u52a8\u6001\u6838\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u5305\u62ec\u6e29\u5347\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u8f90\u5c04\u6548\u5e94\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6e29\u5347\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u57fa\u4e8e\u73b0\u6709\u6392\u653e\u6e90\u5b58\u91cf\u7ed3\u6784\u6d4b\u7b97\u5176\u5728\u672a\u6765\u9501\u5b9a\u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u5e76\u636e\u6b64\u8bc4\u4f30\u6392\u653e\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6e29\u5347\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8f90\u5c04\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u4e0d\u540c\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u5927\u6c14\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u542b\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6-\u8f90\u5c04\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u76f4\u63a5\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u548c\u4e91-\u8f90\u5c04\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u95f4\u63a5\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u3002\u5065\u5eb7\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u91c7\u7528\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732-\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u5065\u5eb7\u635f\u5931\u3002\u8d44\u6e90\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u5305\u62ec\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u8d44\u6e90\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u5173\u952e\u77ff\u4ea7\u8d44\u6e90\u6548\u5e94\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u8bc4\u4f30\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u98ce\u5149\u8d44\u6e90\u5206\u5e03\u53d8\u5316\u53ca\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7535\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u540c\u51cf\u6392\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u5bf9\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u53ca\u54cd\u5e94\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u8bc4\u4f30\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u5bf9\u5173\u952e\u77ff\u4ea7\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5b89\u5168\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"654\" src=\"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-6-1024x654.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-841\" srcset=\"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-6-1024x654.png 1024w, http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-6-300x192.png 300w, http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-6-768x491.png 768w, http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-6-1536x981.png 1536w, http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-6.png 1608w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-black-color has-text-color\">\u56fe1 \u8d39\u7528\u6548\u76ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u5757\u6280\u672f\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe<sub _istranslated=\"1\"><\/sub><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Tong D, Zhang Q, Zheng Y, Caldeira K, Shearer C, Hong C, Qin Y, Davis SJ. Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 C climate target. Nature. 2019 Aug 15;572(7769):373-7.&nbsp;<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-019-1364-3\"><strong>\u94fe\u63a5<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hong C, Zhang Q, Zhang Y, Davis SJ, Zhang X, Tong D, Guan D, Liu Z, He K. Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality. Nature Climate Change. 2020 Sep;10(9):845-50.<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-020-0840-y\"><strong>\u94fe\u63a5<\/strong><\/a><strong>]&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tong D, Farnham DJ, Duan L, Zhang Q, Lewis NS, Caldeira K, Davis SJ. Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide.&nbsp;<em>Nature communications<\/em>. 2021 Oct 22;12(1):6146.&nbsp;<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-021-26355-z#article-info\"><strong>\u94fe\u63a5<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong>\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u52a8\u6001\u6838\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\uff08DEMC\uff09<\/strong><\/strong>&gt;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u52a8\u6001\u6838\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\uff08DEMC\uff09\u7531\u57fa\u4e8e\u5404\u7c7b\u51cf\u6392\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u3001\u8fd0\u7ef4\u6210\u672c\u548c\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u5176\u51cf\u6392\u6f5c\u529b\u548c\u8fd0\u884c\u5bff\u547d\uff0c\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u51cf\u6392\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6210\u672c\u3002DEMC\u6a21\u578b\u4f9d\u636e\u6c61\u67d3\u7269\u51cf\u6392\u91cf\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u51cf\u6392\u7387\u533a\u95f4\u4e0b\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u6210\u672c\u8fdb\u884c\u6838\u7b97\uff0c\u523b\u753b\u4e0d\u540c\u51cf\u6392\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u6280\u672f\u6f14\u66ff\u8fdb\u7a0b\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u6cbb\u7406\u6280\u672f\u3001\u884c\u4e1a\u63aa\u65bd\u3001\u51cf\u6392\u8def\u5f84\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u5c42\u9762\u5206\u6790\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u52a8\u6001\u6838\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\u4ecd\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u5b8c\u5584\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong>\u5065\u5eb7\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30<\/strong><\/strong>&gt;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6a21\u5757\u4f7f\u7528\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732-\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u5065\u5eb7\u635f\u5931\u8fdb\u884c\u6d4b\u7b97\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\u7efc\u5408\u66b4\u9732-\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u578b\uff08IER\uff09\u548c\u5168\u7403\u66b4\u9732\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6a21\u578b\uff08GEMM\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7efc\u5408\u66b4\u9732<\/strong><strong>-<\/strong><strong>\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><strong>(Integrated Exposure-Response, IER)<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>IER\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5168\u7403\u75be\u75c5\u8d1f\u62c5\u7814\u7a76\uff08Global Burden of Disease, GBD\uff09\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732-\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b9725\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4eba\u7fa4\u73af\u5883PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u66b4\u9732\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002IER\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u7248\u672c\u9009\u53d6\u7f3a\u8840\u6027\u5fc3\u810f\u75c5\u3001\u6162\u6027\u963b\u585e\u6027\u80ba\u75c5\u3001\u80ba\u764c\u3001\u4e0b\u547c\u5438\u9053\u611f\u67d3\u548c\u4e2d\u98ce\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5065\u5eb7\u7ec8\u70b9\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u9ad8PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u6d53\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7684\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u7b49\u6548\u6bd2\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5c06\u5438\u70df\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u56fa\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6d53\u5ea6\u66b4\u9732\u7eb3\u5165\u66b4\u9732\u54cd\u5e94\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u4e2d\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7248IER\u6a21\u578b\u589e\u52a0\u4e86II\u578b\u7cd6\u5c3f\u75c5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5065\u5eb7\u7ec8\u70b9\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u66f4\u4e3a\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u6837\u6761\u51fd\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u65b0\u7684PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732-\u54cd\u5e94\u66f2\u7ebf\u6784\u5efa\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08MR-BRT\uff09\u3002IER\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u53c2\u6570\u53ef\u53c2\u9605<a href=\"https:\/\/ghdx.healthdata.org\/gbd-2019\">GBD2019\u5b98\u7f51<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5168\u7403\u66b4\u9732\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><strong>(GEMM)<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5168\u7403\u66b4\u9732\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6a21\u578b<strong>\uff08<\/strong>Global Exposure Mortality Model\uff09\u662fRichard Burnett\u7b49\u4eba\u5f00\u53d1\u7684PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732\u75be\u75c5\u8d1f\u62c5\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u3002GEMM\u6a21\u578b\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u6765\u81ea16\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u768441\u9879\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9ad8PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u6c61\u67d3\u66b4\u9732\u961f\u5217\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u65b0\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5168\u56e0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u66b4\u9732\u53cd\u5e94\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u523b\u753b\u9ad8\u66b4\u9732\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u73af\u5883PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u6c61\u67d3\u6b7b\u4ea1\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5173\u4e8eGEMM\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u53ef\u53c2\u9605<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1803222115\">\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8d39\u7528\u6548\u76ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u5757\u5305\u62ec\u51cf\u6392\u6210\u672c\u6838\u7b97\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d44\u6e90\u6548\u5e94\u8bc4\u4f30\u7b49\u5b50\u6a21\u5757\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u529f\u80fd\u662f\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u6392\u653e\u8def&hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/?page_id=58\" class=\"themebutton2\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":2,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/58"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=58"}],"version-history":[{"count":77,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/58\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":895,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/58\/revisions\/895"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cncap.org.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=58"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}